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IEA: 2024 world oil demand growth forecast revised down by 130,000 bpd to 1.2 mln bpd

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In its monthly oil market report published on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered the 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 130,000 bpd to 1.2 million (mln) barrels per day (bpd).

Additional takeaways

Global observed oil inventories rose by 43.3 mln barrels in February to a seven-month high.

2024 global oil output set to rise by 770,000 bpd to 102.9 mln bpd, led by non-OPEC+ and the US.

Sees 2025 oil demand growth at 1.1 mln bpd due to sub-par economic outlook of 2.9% GDP growth next year.

China's share of global oil demand increase will slump from 79% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 and 27% in 2025.

China’s 2023 post-covid release of pent-up demand has effectively run its course.

Warm weather curtailed OECD heating fuel use and factory slump in advanced economies hit industrial fuel demand.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, WTI is challenging intraday highs at $85.50, up 0.34% on the day.

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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